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Don’t rule out some rain showers overnight Saturday before the sun makes an appearance on Sunday

Partly sunny in Anchorage on Sunday with light winds and a high of 55 degrees.
Published: Sep. 19, 2020 at 11:24 PM AKDT
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ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - This evening we will see temps around 50 degrees with clouds on the increase. We will be mostly cloudy Saturday night with a low of 44 degrees and 10 mph winds. There is a 40-60 percent chance that we see some passing rain showers before they move off to the east AND into the higher mountain elevations. Anchorage will be partly sunny on Sunday with a high of 55 degrees and 10 mph winds. Sunday night we drop down to 44 degrees with light winds and mostly cloudy skies. Cloudy skies for Monday with a 60 percent chance for rain showers as we warm up to 55 degrees for a high. Monday night we drop down to 41 degrees with light winds, cloudy skies as well as rain chances staying alive. Looking ahead, with light winds we will be cloudy as we warm up to 55 degrees for a high on Tuesday. Our first day of Fall looks to be a rainy one as rain shower chances will be around 60 percent.

Inland areas through Southcentral should move into a relatively quiet weather pattern over the next few days. Before that though, on Saturday a storm will move into the southern Gulf and will bring some brief rain to Kodiak Island and surrounding areas until air flow out of the northwest pushes these storms to the southeast and into the open Gulf waters. So the bad weather in these areas should only be brief, only lasting for a few hours. Before Southcentral sees those quiet times, storms approaching from the southwest on Saturday should bring rain shower activity across much of mainland Southcentral later in the day on Saturday. Especially, to areas from Anchorage north, and focused along the mountains. Air flow out of the east will push Gulf moisture into the Western Kenai thus enhancing rain showers to portions of Southcentral. A lot of this shower activity could stay confined to higher elevations in the mountains east of Anchorage (Palmer and Hatcher Pass) but then move to the east into the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains. Some of those higher elevations mostly above 3,000 feet or so could see snow accumulation as rain changes over to snow as colder air moves down from the north.

On Sunday, those areas of rain and snow will shift further east, likely focusing around the Prince William Sound area. Rain showers will get some added help during the climb and lift up over the mountains as they move east. Mountain blocking will keep areas near and around Cook Inlet relatively dry, but with a passing shower or two and a mix of clouds and sun on Sunday.

By Monday, larger and stronger storms will make their way towards the Gulf. As of now, the storm track looks to stay slightly to the south of the Alaska Mainland. Due to the storms huge tap into moisture becoming pulled up from tropical origins, the spin of this storm looks to be able to drop several inches of rain along portions of the Gulf Coast Monday and Monday night. The lightest of the rain should be further north on the north Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound. While the heaviest of the rain should be on Kodiak Island as winds from the east and northeast push moisture in the direction of Kodiak.

For the extended forecast, Tuesday through Friday, if this storm in the Gulf stalls, then we could see consistent and potential heavy rainfall at times ongoing into Kodiak Island for much of the day on Tuesday as well. The further inland you go into the mainland, then the dryer things should be with a chance or two of some of this storm energy bringing a light shower to even some inland locations at times. Temperatures should stay around or above average as storms keep pulling up warmer air, while the colder air sits out over the Bering Sea.

Storms on Tuesday will be moving from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific Ocean. These storms will bring rain and winds to Bristol Bay (maybe clipping the area) and then impacting Kodiak Island and the Gulf Coast. Further to the north, areas of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will remain mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. These storms should weaken and exit the area off to the east Wednesday through Thursday. The forecast area should remain pretty quiet after the remnants of these systems move off through Thursday.

Storms will move out of the Arctic and south down into the Bering Sea on Friday and continue into the North Pacific Ocean. This should cause storms to develop over the Pacific Ocean south of the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska. The result of this development could return stormy conditions to the Gulf as well as Southcentral Alaska. We will continue to monitor and bring the latest storm details to fruition.

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