Fall-like storm to bring heavy rain and winds into Thursday

Multiple inches of rain will fall across parts of Southcentral
Published: Sep. 7, 2022 at 6:51 AM AKDT
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ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - Scattered showers are once again impacting parts of Southcentral this morning, as an upper level disturbance begins to build into the area. While the rain itself is favoring Anchorage and the Valley, the rest of Southcentral could see some isolated showers at times. Any rain that falls today will likely be less than .40″ of rain, with drier weather returning into the afternoon hours. Enjoy the dry weather, as a fall-like storm sweeps through Southcentral into Thursday.

SYNOPSIS:

A trough digging south over the Bering Sea and into the Pacific Ocean will enhance an atmospheric river that has remained fixated on Southcentral. This will pump in more moisture for Southentral over the next 24 to 36 hours, with many areas expecting to see multiple inches of rain. The current system set to move into the region is just south of the Aleutians as a fairly weak low. While winds and rain aren’t impressive yet, as the low continues to build into Southcentral the pressure gradients will tighten and winds will become stronger across the Gulf of Alaska and through Southcentral into Thursday.

THREATS:

Widespread heavy rain and winds will be our biggest threats with this incoming storm. The rain will begin for Kodiak Island this afternoon and then spread northward to the rest of Southcentral into the night. As the rain moves in, we’ll see periods of heavy rain and downpours starting tonight and lasting through most if not all of Thursday. As a result of the dynamics of this storm system and the mountains helping to enhance the rain, many areas for inland regions could see 1 to 3 inches of rain. Even heavier rain can be expected for eastern Prince William Sound, where 5 to 8 inches of rain is possible. With the amount of rain we’ve seen over the last 2 months and the already saturated ground, minor and urban flooding looks likely. If you live in areas that typically flood remain alert over the next 24 to 36 hours. It’s possible we could see parts of Southcentral go under a flood watch as the event approaches.

An additional threat will be very strong winds, which can pose some problems considering the wet weather we’ve seen. The highest winds look to favor the gaps and passes of the Chugach Mountains as well as the Anchorage Hillside. It’s here where winds up to 60 mph can’t be ruled out, while Anchorage likely sees winds gusting as high as 45 mph. It’s certainly possible to see higher winds as the winds out of Turnagain Arm bend into Anchorage. Gusty winds will also build into the valley as well as parts of the Copper River Basin, as the winds funnel through the mountains. While the highest winds will be with us through the first half of the day, gusty conditions will stick around for most of the day Thursday. For both rain and winds the activity is set to decrease into Friday, with slightly cooler air to follow. It’s entirely possible wiht the already saturated ground and strong winds moving in, that some downed trees and powerlines could occur in areas with the highest wind speeds.

Looking ahead beyond Friday, a chance for showers will linger across much of the region into the weekend. While Saturday looks to be the drier of the weekend, we can’t rule out an isolated shower or two. We’ll hold onto at least daily rain for much of the region, with highs staying in the mid to upper 50s. The only exception will be Thursday, as the all day rain could prevent temperatures from climbing out of the low to mid 50s.

The wet pattern looks to stick around for the next 1 to 2 weeks for many across Southcentral. September is the wettest month on average with just over 3 inches of rain. So far this month we’ve already seen over an inch of rain, with the heavy rain Wednesday night through Friday morning likely to bring our monthly total to 3 to 4 inches for Anchorage by the end of the week.

Have a safe and wonderful Wednesday!