Our warmest temperatures will be early before they fall throughout the day

Published: Feb. 10, 2020 at 12:21 PM AKST
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While under mostly sunny skies Monday in Anchorage we will see a high near 21 degrees.

After a very warm weekend in Southcentral compared to all of January, cold air moving down through the Alaska Range Passes should drop us back down to around average or even a little bit cooler.

Our cooldown began Sunday night into Monday morning as warm air and winds out of the south diminished while clouds and storms moved off to the east. The rest of our cool down in Southcentral will happen throughout the day on Monday.

Our days are getting longer while the sun is getting stronger but not enough yet to warm us up too much compared to the low temps we experience overnight. The push of cold air through the passes should increase our winds out of the west to the 50 mph range in terms of wind gusts, especially through Whittier and Passage Canal. Gusty winds out of the north are also expected through Seward and Resurrection Bay.

Cold winds over 30 mph out of the west are possible through Kachemak Bay and potentially into Homer during the day on Monday as well as in the Copper River Basin and surrounding waters. Late Monday we could see Gale Force Winds (39-54 mph) out of the north through the narrow mountain passes and the Copper River Delta. \

Winds should start to diminish Monday night in Seward and Whittier. As skies clear and winds calm, much of Southcentral will see temperatures drop below zero with Anchorage and Kenai falling to right around zero.

On Tuesday there will be an abundance of sunshine but temperatures will struggle to warm out of the teens as cold air continues to move through the valleys and down from the north.

The cold air should keep winds elevated in Valdez and the Copper River Basin through the day on Monday and into Tuesday before a storm moves into the southwestern Gulf on Tuesday afternoon with a chance the storms bring snow to Kodiak Tuesday night as well as snow and winds to the rest of the Gulf.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring nearly a foot of snow to Kodiak due to the abundance of moisture associated with these storms. The storm could move east before reaching Middleton Island on Wednesday thus limiting impacts to the rest of Southcentral though periods of snow are likely on the coast late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

Also, as the storm veers east there still could be enough energy to send light snow north into the western Kenai and Anchorage areas as well. The valleys could be out of range of this storm Tuesday into Wednesday as the storms move east and stay far enough to the south.

The system moves into the eastern Gulf Wednesday evening, making for rapid clearing behind it for much of Southcentral.

Another round of gap winds through Whittier and Seward and many of the other gaps will persist into Wednesday night. This will keep cold air in place as well as below-freezing temperatures across Southcentral for the rest of the forecast period.

For the extended period of Wednesday through Sunday we will see a strong storm approach the western Aleutians from the North Pacific on Wednesday. Gusty winds and moderate rain/snow are likely as associated storm energy tracks across the Aleutians by Thursday.

The storm could sit in place with little movement but weaken Friday into Saturday leading to diminishing winds while precipitation continues through the weekend. A series of storms will track west to east across the Gulf through the weekend, bringing precipitation to coastal areas as well as snow to the Copper River Basin.

High pressure over the Interior will weaken over the weekend but the pull on the high from these storms could keep winds active in parts of Southcentral.

Partly cloudy skies in Anchorage on Monday will turn mostly sunny with a high of 21 degrees along with 20 mph wind gusts. Monday night we drop down to -1 below while under clear skies and winds up to 25 mph along Turnagain Arm and in higher elevations.

Partly cloudy on Tuesday in Anchorage with a high of 14 degrees with 10 mph winds. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night with 25 mph wind gusts after Midnight.

Looking ahead, Wednesday we will be cloudy with 15 mph winds, a high of 18 degrees and a 50 percent chance of snow.

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