Election 2026: With bipartisan House majority in the balance, several races will determine control of legislature

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - Alaska’s Bipartisan House Majority is upheld by a single vote, a single vote that hangs in the balance.

Seven House races have incumbents currently losing or narrowly holding onto their seats. Of the wavering state seats, six are lawmakers who caucus with the all-Republican minority caucus, and one is in the majority.

Primary results show most state senate races are not competitive, and incumbents have a 10-point lead above their challengers, with the exception to Sen. George Rauscher, R-Sutton, who has an 8-point lead.

Election Day is Nov. 3.

How are races selected for this article?

The following races are selected if the incumbent has a less than 10-point lead above the second-highest vote getter.

Turnout in primary elections are generally lower than the general election. Reporting reflects district turnout. Statewide turnout was 27.74% of registered voters, according to official election results.

For official results, visit here: Election Results.

Jeopardized incumbents

District 6 - Homer

Homer Rep. Sarah Vance, R, is fighting to keep her seat from challenger Brent Johnson, a nonpartisan.

The incumbent earned 43.13% of the vote to Johnson’s 56.87%.

Vance made headlines after she pressured the Homer News to remove an article related to a vigil for the assassination of Charlie Kirk, calling the coverage offensive and that it “read like an obituary drafted by a political adversary.”

Carpenter Media Group, the parent company of the Homer News, would remove the original article, revise it, and repost it without the reporter’s byline. The decision by the parent company lead to several reporters and editors under Carpenter Media across Alaska to resign.

A state legislative ethics panel found Vance had probable cause that she violated ethics law when she used official legislative letterhead to condemn the Homer News.

Vance has been in office since 2019.

Turnout in the district was 36.73%

District 11 - Anchorage

Midtown is narrowly split on whether to keep Rep. Julie Coulombe, R, in her seat. The incumbent earned 50.57% of the vote to Democratic challenger Danni Hall’s 49.43%.

Coulombe has been in the legislature since 2023.

Turnout in the district was about 35%.

The Anchorage Republican holds a narrow lead over her challenger, but one incumbent in Campbell Lake isn’t as comfortable.

District 15 - Anchorage

Former House Minority Leader Mia Costello, R, is about 250 votes behind Democrat Denny Wells. Costello holds 47.26% of the vote to Wells’ 52.74%.

Costello has been in the legislature since 2011.

Turnout was about 32%.

District 28 - Mat-Su

Incumbent Republican Rep. Elexie Moore led the Republican primary field, outpacing fellow Republican Stephen Wright by 83 votes, 1,209 to 1,126

In third place, with more than 1,000 votes is the only Democrat in the race, Kit Kennedy.

Evan Bordenkircher, who received over 200 votes, withdrew from the race.

Moore has been in the legislature since 2025.

Turnout was 24.33%.

District 30 - Mat-Su

Rep. Kevin McCabe, R-Big Lake, will face two opponents in November after the two lowest vote-earning challengers withdrew.

McCabe led his challengers, earning 32.41% of the vote. Democrat Sandra Loomis finished second with 29.24%, followed by Doug Massie, at 20.64%.

McCabe has been in office since 2021.

Turnout in the district was 27.10%.

District 33 - North Pole

Rep. Mike Prax, R-North Pole, came out on top of his two challengers in the August Primary, though votes were moderately dispersed between the three.

Prax earned 37.03% of the vote, just over 100 votes more than Barbara Haney, the second Republican in the race. Pepper McFarland, who is undeclared, placed third with over 1,000 votes and 28.84% of the vote.

Prax has been in office since 2019.

Turnout was 22.77% in the district

District 38 - Western Alaska

One of the largest districts in Alaska, Rep. Nellie Jimmie, D-Toksook Bay, is struggling to hold her seat against former state lawmaker CJ McCormick.

McCormick, a one-term lawmaker from 2023-2024, earned 32.04% of the vote to Jimmie’s 29%. In the 2024 election, when Jimmie and McCormick first faced off, Jimmie outperformed McCormick with 43.8% of the vote to his 28.3%, according to Ballotpedia.

Jimmie has been in office since 2025.

Turnout was 15.87%.

House District 38 was impacted by ex-typhoon Halong in August and includes the villages of Kipnuk and Kwigillingok. Both communities did not have voting locations in August.

Open seats

District 5 - Kodiak

Longtime Rep. Louise Stutes, R-Kodiak, is making her pitch to voters to add her into the Alaska State Senate, leaving her seat open for the taking.

Primary voters say Kathy Simpler, who is nonpartisan, is the woman for the job, receiving 61.42% of the votes. Sheldon Prout, a Republican, trails with 38.58% of the votes.

Turnout was 27.31% of registered voters in the district.

District 13 - Anchorage

Retiring after more than a decade in the legislature, Rep. Andy Josephson, D-Anchorage, looks set to pass his seat to Lisa Keller, another Democrat.

Keller won 72% of the vote in the primary; her sole opponent, former Anchorage Assemblymember Felix Rivera, withdrew his candidacy.

District 18 - Anchorage

Former state lawmaker Cliff Groh, D-Anchorage, is primed to replace Rep. David Nelson, R-Anchorage, who is leaving the body.

Groh served one term after his 2023 election. With 9% of the district turning out for the primary, Groh won over two-thirds of the vote over Republican opponent Dan Sager.

District 24 - Eagle River

A question in Eagle River: who will replace Republican Rep. Dan Saddler?

In the lead by over 500 votes is Ken McCarty, a Republican, with 46.81%. Gina Wall, another Republican, is in second with 33.83% of the vote.

But McCarty and Wall have new calculations to make. The third Republican in the race, Sharon Jackson, withdrew her application, leaving the roughly 20% of primary voters who backed her to decide a new candidate to back.

Just over 31% of registered voters turned-out in House District 24.

District 34 - Fairbanks

Rep. Frank Tomaszewski, R-Fairbanks, is making his pitch for a Senate promotion — a race he holds a 20-point lead in. The margins are narrow to see if another Tomaszewski will replace him, though.

Harmony Tomaszewski, a Republican and the current Representative’s wife, is behind nonpartisan Joy Beth Cottle in the race for the House seat. Cottle leads with 52.99% of the vote to Tomaszewski’s 47.01%.

Over 31% of the district turned out.

District 37 - Western Alaska

House Speaker Bryce Edgmon is another on a list of representatives hoping to get a promotion in the Senate. In the most crowded House Race, Republican Brenda Wilson leads.

Wilson earned 22.62% of the vote, followed by Democrat Evelynn Trefon with 19.76%, Nonpartisan Mark Smith with 17.48% of the vote and Cade Woods, another nonpartisan with 9.18%

Seven people ran to fill Edgmon’s open seat.

Races to watch

District 23 - Eagle River

In one of the most-contested state races, Rep. Jamie Allard, R, holds just shy of a 400-vote lead above her opponents. Allard earned 39.78% of the vote.

Democrat Jim Arlington is second with 31.86% of the electorate. Ruby Jones, a Republican, came in third with 13.93% of the vote.

Nick Capozzi, a Republican who earned 427 votes, finished fourth but withdrew from the race, elevating Democrat Lee Hammermeister to the November election.

Turnout was about 31.5%.

District 27 - Mat-Su

Former lawmaker David Eastman, R, was censured by the legislature for controversial comments he made while in office, and while he’s trying to make his way back to Juneau’s capitol, incumbent Jubilee Underwood is just barely under a double-digit lead.

Underwood holds 54.83% to Eastman’s 45.17%.

Underwood replaced Eastman in 2025. She replaced Eastman by just under 200 votes. Eastman served in the legislature from 2017 to 2024.

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